| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.7% | 63% | -4.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.4% | 47.4% |
| logistic | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| Marta Kostyuk | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1749 | 1914 |
| Surface Elo | 1749 | 1914 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 08 Nov | H | Linda Noskova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Nov | A | Linda Noskova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Maria Sakkari | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Nov | A | Coco Gauff | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Nov | A | Coco Gauff | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Jelena Ostapenko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Aryna Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Emma Navarro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Jessica Pegula | 0 - 2 | Marta Kostyuk |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Jessica Pegula | 0 - 2 | Marta Kostyuk |
| 25 Sep 2025 | Jessica Pegula | 2 - 1 | Marta Kostyuk |
| 18 Mar 2025 | Jessica Pegula | 2 - 0 | Marta Kostyuk |
| 26 Feb 2024 | Jessica Pegula | 0 - 2 | Marta Kostyuk |
| 16 Jan 2023 | Jessica Pegula | 2 - 0 | Marta Kostyuk |
| 15 Aug 2022 | Jessica Pegula | 2 - 1 | Marta Kostyuk |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.58 | 63.3% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 10 Nov 06:15 |