| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 71.7% | 91% | -19.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 9.8% | 90.2% |
| logistic | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| Jose Pereira | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1450 | 1675 |
| Surface Elo | 1450 | 1675 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Mateus Alves | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Mateus Alves | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Ryan Dickerson | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Mateus Alves | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Jose Pereira | 1 - 2 | Lautaro Midon |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Jose Pereira | 1 - 2 | Lautaro Midon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.10 | 90.9% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 6.20 | 16.1% | 06 Oct 06:15 |