| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.7% | 81% | -16.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| logistic | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Luca Potenza | Enrico Dalla Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1505 | 1573 |
| Surface Elo | 1505 | 1573 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 6 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Lui Maxted | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Francesco Passaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Gabriele Piraino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Luca Potenza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Enrico Dalla Valle | 2 - 0 | Luca Potenza |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.21 | 82.6% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.05 | 24.7% | 06 Oct 06:15 |