OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ Scotland Premiership · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Kilmarnock 1.00 3 - 2 0.60 Motherwell
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 47.8%48%+0.2%✗ miss
DCHome or away 75.4%77%-2.1%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 61.5%64%-2.3%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 53.7%43%+11.2%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 50.7%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson31.4%26.1%42.5%
xgboost27.8%25.6%46.6%
logistic31.8%29.3%38.9%
Inputs the models saw
KilmarnockMotherwell
Elo (pre-match)15911669
Surface Elo15911669
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.000.60
Form trend0.000.60
Season points per game0.500.00
Season goals for / game1.000.50
Season goals against / game2.002.00
Rest days76
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W4 W · 4 D
Kilmarnock: last 5
10 OctARangers1 - 3L
10 OctARangers1 - 3L
26 SepAHamilton0 - 3L
22 SepADumbarton2 - 3L
19 SepHHearts1 - 1D
Motherwell: last 5
11 OctHCeltic0 - 2L
11 OctHCeltic0 - 2L
26 SepABonnyrigg Rose0 - 3L
19 SepADundee1 - 2L
19 SepADundee1 - 2L
Head to head
24 Jan 2026Motherwell4 - 0Kilmarnock
22 Nov 2025Kilmarnock1 - 3Motherwell
30 Aug 2025Motherwell2 - 2Kilmarnock
14 May 2025Motherwell3 - 0Kilmarnock
05 Apr 2025Kilmarnock2 - 0Motherwell
08 Jan 2025Kilmarnock0 - 0Motherwell
20 Dec 2024Motherwell1 - 1Kilmarnock
03 Feb 2024Motherwell1 - 1Kilmarnock
04 Nov 2023Kilmarnock1 - 0Motherwell
26 Aug 2023Motherwell2 - 1Kilmarnock
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.1346.9%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7626.6%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.2930.4%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6062.5%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.3542.5%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:19 UTC