OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
🇪🇸 La Liga · Saturday 17 October 2026, 12:00 UTC · finished
Espanol 1.00 0 - 1 2.40 Atlético Madrid
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 54.0%59%-4.6%✓ hit
DCDraw or away 80.3%83%-2.7%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 72.4%77%-4.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.1%57%+0.0%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 54.9%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson25.4%25.0%49.6%
xgboost16.8%24.6%58.6%
logistic19.3%25.3%55.4%
Inputs the models saw
EspanolAtlético Madrid
Elo (pre-match)15541772
Surface Elo15541772
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.002.40
Form trend0.30-0.60
Season points per game1.002.38
Season goals for / game1.382.25
Season goals against / game1.381.00
Rest days76
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W4 W · 5 D
Espanol: last 5
09 OctAMalaga1 - 1D
09 OctAMalaga1 - 1D
18 SepHElche1 - 3L
15 SepAVallecano1 - 2L
12 SepAOsasuna2 - 0W
Atlético Madrid: last 5
17 OctHGimnastica Segoviana CF1 - 1D
13 OctHMan Utd2 - 0W
11 OctHZaragoza4 - 4D
11 OctACDA Navalcarnero1 - 1D
10 OctAAlaves2 - 1W
Head to head
21 Feb 2026Atlético Madrid4 - 2Espanol
17 Aug 2025Espanol2 - 1Atlético Madrid
29 Mar 2025Espanol1 - 1Atlético Madrid
28 Aug 2024Atlético Madrid0 - 0Espanol
24 May 2023Espanol3 - 3Atlético Madrid
06 Nov 2022Atlético Madrid1 - 1Espanol
17 Apr 2022Atlético Madrid2 - 1Espanol
12 Sep 2021Espanol1 - 2Atlético Madrid
01 Mar 2020Espanol1 - 1Atlético Madrid
10 Nov 2019Atlético Madrid3 - 1Espanol
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away1.6759.9%17 Oct 13:00
Bet3651X2draw4.1024.4%17 Oct 13:00
Bet3651X2home4.7521.1%17 Oct 13:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.7357.8%17 Oct 13:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.1047.6%17 Oct 13:00
SportyBet1X2away1.7158.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.2323.6%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home5.0419.8%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6859.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2544.4%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:22 UTC