| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.2% | 62% | -12.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.7% | 82% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.0% | 82% | -17.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 48% | +6.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.8% | 25.4% | 41.9% |
| xgboost | 50.3% | 26.7% | 23.0% |
| logistic | 53.2% | 27.4% | 19.3% |
| Nantes | Dunkerque | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1474 | 1391 |
| Surface Elo | 1474 | 1391 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Reims | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Reims | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Boulogne | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Boulogne | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Sochaux | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Annecy | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Annecy | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Pau FC | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | St Etienne | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Sep | H | Clermont | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.64 | 61.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |