| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.9% | 53% | -4.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.3% | 82% | -5.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.5% | 73% | -7.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 52% | +6.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.1% | 32.1% | 25.8% |
| xgboost | 42.9% | 34.3% | 22.9% |
| logistic | 43.9% | 31.5% | 24.6% |
| Padova | Carrarese | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1431 | 1348 |
| Surface Elo | 1431 | 1348 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 22 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Sampdoria Genoa | 0 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Palermo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Palermo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Virtus Entella | 1 - 4 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Ascoli | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Benevento | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Benevento | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Catanzaro | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Empoli | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Ascoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Padova | 1 - 0 | Carrarese |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Carrarese | 0 - 0 | Padova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 11 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 11 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.90 | 52.6% | 11 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.90 | 52.6% | 11 Oct 16:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.92 | 52.1% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.84 | 54.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |