| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.5% | 65% | -5.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| logistic | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Holger Rune | Kyrian Jacquet | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1930 | 1767 |
| Surface Elo | 1930 | 1767 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 353 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Marton Fucsovics | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Holger Rune | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Fabian Marozsan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Fabian Marozsan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Holger Rune | 0 - 2 | Kyrian Jacquet |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 30 Sep 06:15 |