| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.3% | 65% | -16.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.9% | 84% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.9% | 82% | -21.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 70% | -16.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.9% | 25.0% | 39.1% |
| xgboost | 43.6% | 17.6% | 38.8% |
| logistic | 37.6% | 30.8% | 31.7% |
| Heracles | Waalwijk | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1346 | 1419 |
| Surface Elo | 1346 | 1419 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 145 | 509 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 5 W · 2 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Helmond Sport | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Vitesse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 May | H | Groningen | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 May | A | Telstar | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 May | A | Zwolle | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | FC Emmen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Roda JC Kerkrade | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 May | H | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 - 3 | W |
| 14 May | A | Feyenoord | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 May | H | Heerenveen | 3 - 1 | W |
| 06 Apr 2025 | Waalwijk | 0 - 0 | Heracles |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Heracles | 2 - 2 | Waalwijk |
| 05 May 2024 | Heracles | 0 - 5 | Waalwijk |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Waalwijk | 1 - 2 | Heracles |
| 11 May 2022 | Waalwijk | 2 - 0 | Heracles |
| 26 Sep 2021 | Heracles | 1 - 0 | Waalwijk |
| 21 Feb 2021 | Waalwijk | 3 - 0 | Heracles |
| 17 Oct 2020 | Heracles | 0 - 1 | Waalwijk |
| 08 Mar 2020 | Heracles | 4 - 2 | Waalwijk |
| 02 Nov 2019 | Waalwijk | 2 - 0 | Heracles |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.30 | 18.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |