| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.5% | 74% | -16.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 66.7% | 33.2% |
| logistic | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| Hiroki Moriya | Taisei Ichikawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1476 | 1475 |
| Surface Elo | 1476 | 1475 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 19 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Keegan Smith | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Blake Ellis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Blake Ellis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Yuta Shimizu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Maximus Jones | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Ren Nakamura | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Blake Bayldon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Petr Bar Biryukov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Jan | H | Yuta Shimizu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | Neil Oberleitner | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 25 Oct 06:15 |