| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 56.1% | 66% | -10.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| logistic | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| Justin Roberts | Jose Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1480 | 1427 |
| Surface Elo | 1480 | 1427 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1032 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Nov | A | Andres Andrade | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Nov | A | Benjamin Ignacio Torres Fernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Gonzalo Bueno | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | Ignacio Buse | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | Joshua Sheehy | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Felipe De Dios | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 May | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Apr | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Mar | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Nov | H | Maximo Zeitune | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.51 | 66.2% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 24 Sep 06:15 |