OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-06

🎾 tennis_atp_japan_open · Tuesday 06 October 2026, 09:00 UTC · scheduled

Carlos Alcaraz 2.40 09:00 2.40 Jiri Lehecka

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	74.1%	78%	-4.1%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	83.5%	16.5%
logistic	76.0%	24.0%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Carlos Alcaraz	Jiri Lehecka
Elo (pre-match)	2271	1984
Surface Elo	2271	1984
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	2.40
Form trend	-0.30	-0.60
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	1 W · 0 D

Carlos Alcaraz: last 5

06 Oct	H	Jiri Lehecka	2 - 0	W
05 Oct	H	Jaume Munar	2 - 1	W
05 Oct	H	Jaume Munar	2 - 1	W
04 Oct	H	Denis Shapovalov	1 - 0	W
03 Oct	H	Matteo Arnaldi	2 - 0	W

Jiri Lehecka: last 5

06 Oct	A	Carlos Alcaraz	0 - 2	L
05 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	2 - 0	W
05 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	2 - 0	W
04 Oct	H	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2 - 0	W
04 Oct	A	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2 - 0	W

Head to head

06 Oct 2026	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Jiri Lehecka
24 Aug 2025	Carlos Alcaraz	3 - 0	Jiri Lehecka
16 Jun 2025	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 1	Jiri Lehecka
17 Feb 2025	Carlos Alcaraz	1 - 2	Jiri Lehecka
19 Jun 2023	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Jiri Lehecka

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
888sport	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.29	77.5%	06 Oct 06:00
888sport	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.60	27.8%	06 Oct 06:00
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.27	78.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.95	25.3%	06 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.29	77.5%	06 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	4.40	22.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.30	76.9%	06 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Jiri Lehecka	4.50	22.2%	06 Oct 06:00
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.28	78.1%	06 Oct 06:00
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.87	25.8%	06 Oct 06:00
Betsson	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.26	79.4%	06 Oct 06:00
Betsson	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.75	26.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Coolbet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.27	78.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Coolbet	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.80	26.3%	06 Oct 06:00
GTbets	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.24	80.7%	06 Oct 06:00
GTbets	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.93	25.4%	06 Oct 06:00
Marathon Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.26	79.4%	06 Oct 06:00
Marathon Bet	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.80	26.3%	06 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.29	77.5%	06 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	4.40	22.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.30	76.9%	06 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Jiri Lehecka	4.50	22.2%	06 Oct 06:00
Nordic Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.26	79.4%	06 Oct 06:00
Nordic Bet	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.75	26.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.28	78.1%	06 Oct 06:00
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	4.08	24.5%	06 Oct 06:00
PMU (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.23	81.3%	06 Oct 06:00
PMU (FR)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.50	28.6%	06 Oct 06:00
SportyBet	1X2	away	3.90	25.6%	06 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.28	78.1%	06 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.22	82.0%	06 Oct 06:00
Tipico	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.80	26.3%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.23	81.3%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	4.25	23.5%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.28	78.1%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.75	26.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.28	78.1%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.75	26.7%	06 Oct 06:00
William Hill	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.29	77.5%	06 Oct 06:00
William Hill	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.60	27.8%	06 Oct 06:00
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.28	78.1%	06 Oct 06:00
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.95	25.3%	06 Oct 06:00
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.27	78.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	3.80	26.3%	06 Oct 06:00

Generated 2026-10-30 18:20 UTC