| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.6% | 63% | -8.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.5% | 87% | -8.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.4% | 81% | -10.8% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 44% | +5.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.6% | 28.2% | 26.1% |
| xgboost | 54.8% | 21.4% | 23.8% |
| logistic | 62.2% | 22.4% | 15.4% |
| Carlisle | Kidderminster | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1538 | 1434 |
| Surface Elo | 1538 | 1434 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Aldershot | 3 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Aldershot | 3 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Fylde | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Fylde | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Woking | 2 - 5 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Sutton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Sutton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Yeovil | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.80 | 20.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.58 | 63.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.59 | 62.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |