| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.1% | 42% | +6.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 73.9% | 72% | +2.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.2% | 58% | +6.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 58% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.1% | 28.5% | 22.4% |
| xgboost | 42.2% | 29.0% | 28.8% |
| logistic | 44.3% | 28.0% | 27.6% |
| Kidderminster | Sutton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1439 | 1395 |
| Surface Elo | 1439 | 1395 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Yeovil | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Yeovil | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Woking | 0 - 0 | D |
| 30 Sep | A | Tamworth | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Tamworth | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Forest Green | 3 - 3 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Forest Green | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Halifax | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.71 | 58.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |