| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.1% | 59% | -2.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| logistic | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Pavel Lagutin | Massimo Giunta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1523 | 1506 |
| Surface Elo | 1523 | 1506 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.14 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Oleksandr Ovcharenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Massimo Giunta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Ignacio Parisca Romera | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Henry Searle | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Max Wiskandt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Pavel Lagutin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Maxim Zhukov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 0 | Pavel Lagutin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 15 Oct 06:15 |