| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.0% | 87% | -14.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 85.0% | 14.9% |
| logistic | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| Gustavo Heide | Eduardo Ribeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1754 | 1480 |
| Surface Elo | 1754 | 1480 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Maximo Zeitune | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Maximo Zeitune | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Samuel Heredia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Samuel Heredia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Pedro Sakamoto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 1 | Gustavo Heide |
| 02 Mar 2026 | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 1 | Gustavo Heide |
| 25 Sep 2023 | Eduardo Ribeiro | 0 - 2 | Gustavo Heide |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.20 | 19.2% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.14 | 87.7% | 08 Oct 06:15 |