| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 44% | +10.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 50.0% | 49.9% |
| logistic | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Felix Balshaw | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1655 | 1641 |
| Surface Elo | 1655 | 1641 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Henry Bernet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Felix Balshaw | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Billy Harris | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 1 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer |
| 07 Sep 2026 | Felix Balshaw | 0 - 2 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.55 | 64.5% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 01 Oct 06:15 |