| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.3% | 67% | -10.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 61.7% | 38.2% |
| logistic | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Alexander Shevchenko | Stefanos Sakellaridis | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1709 | 1658 |
| Surface Elo | 1709 | 1658 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | Daniil Glinka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Miomir Kecmanovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Jay Friend | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Miomir Kecmanovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Petr Bar Biryukov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Keegan Smith | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Keegan Smith | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Timofey Skatov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Yuta Shimizu | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |