| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.9% | 60% | -6.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.1% | 85% | -7.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.3% | 78% | -7.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 65% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 68.2% | 17.5% | 14.3% |
| xgboost | 52.6% | 22.8% | 24.6% |
| logistic | 52.6% | 26.3% | 21.1% |
| Spartans | Kelty Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1438 | 1359 |
| Surface Elo | 1438 | 1359 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.13 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.38 | 1.38 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.88 | 2.25 |
| Rest days | 14 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | H | Dundee | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Dumbarton | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Dumbarton | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Forfar | 5 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Montrose | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Heart of Midlothian FC | 3 - 5 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Edinburgh City | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Edinburgh City | 1 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Clyde | 1 - 4 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.60 | 62.5% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.25 | 23.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.67 | 59.9% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 03 Oct 06:15 |