| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.5% | no line | ✓ hit | |
| DC | Draw or away | 86.8% | no line | ✓ hit | |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 83.7% | no line | ✓ hit | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | no line | ✗ miss | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 9.3% | 16.0% | 74.7% |
| xgboost | 18.7% | 23.0% | 58.3% |
| logistic | 7.8% | 17.5% | 74.6% |
| Estrela | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1436 | 1866 |
| Surface Elo | 1436 | 1866 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 6 W · 0 D |
| 08 Nov | A | SC Salgueiros | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Moreirense | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Moreirense | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Oct | H | CF Uniao de Lamas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Casa Pia | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Nov | A | Farense | 3 - 2 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | KKS Lech Poznan | 3 - 1 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Alverca | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Chaves | 3 - 1 | W |
| 29 Oct | H | Gil Vicente | 4 - 1 | W |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Benfica | 4 - 0 | Estrela |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Estrela | 0 - 1 | Benfica |
| 02 Feb 2025 | Estrela | 2 - 3 | Benfica |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Benfica | 1 - 0 | Estrela |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Estrela | 1 - 4 | Benfica |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Benfica | 2 - 0 | Estrela |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||