| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.4% | 47% | +6.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| logistic | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Jan Kumstat | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1723 | 1644 |
| Surface Elo | 1723 | 1644 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 43 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Chun Hsin Tseng | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Filip Cristian Jianu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jan Kumstat | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | H | Max Hans Rehberg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Max Hans Rehberg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Jerome Kym | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Moez Echargui | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 2 | Jan Kumstat |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.62 | 61.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |