| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.0% | 38% | +4.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.1% | 75% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 52.3% | 53% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 47% | +8.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.5% | 26.7% | 34.8% |
| xgboost | 34.8% | 30.0% | 35.2% |
| logistic | 34.6% | 29.2% | 36.2% |
| Blackburn | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1526 | 1585 |
| Surface Elo | 1526 | 1585 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.36 | 1.27 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.55 | 1.36 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 17 Oct | A | West Brom | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | West Brom | 2 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Bolton | 3 - 3 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Preston North End | 4 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Preston | 4 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | West Brom | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | West Brom | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Derby | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Jan 2026 | Blackburn | 0 - 2 | Wrexham |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | Blackburn |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.03 | 49.3% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.83 | 54.6% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.72 | 36.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.32 | 30.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.77 | 36.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.73 | 57.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |