| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.5% | 93% | -22.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| logistic | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | Santiago De La Fuente | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1560 | 1381 |
| Surface Elo | 1560 | 1381 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | H | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Mateo Del Pino | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Pedro Sakamoto | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Boris Arias | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Jun | A | Matias Soto | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jun | A | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Jun | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.90 | 14.5% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.08 | 92.6% | 04 Oct 06:15 |