| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.2% | 49% | +0.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.9% | 79% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.2% | 68% | -2.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 50% | +6.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.6% | 29.3% | 26.2% |
| xgboost | 41.5% | 32.6% | 25.9% |
| logistic | 50.2% | 27.2% | 22.6% |
| Modena | Verona | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1471 | 1462 |
| Surface Elo | 1471 | 1462 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | H | Empoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Empoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Sampdoria Genoa | 4 - 4 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Sudtirol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | Avellino | 0 - 1 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Lugano | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | L.R. Vicenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Vicenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Sep | A | Benevento | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Arezzo | 5 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |