| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.3% | 84% | -10.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 79.9% | 20.1% |
| logistic | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| Hernan Casanova | Wilson Leite | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1501 | 1367 |
| Surface Elo | 1501 | 1367 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Hernan Casanova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Bruno Fernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Justin Roberts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Mateus Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct 2026 | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 1 | Wilson Leite |
| 26 Apr 2021 | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 0 | Wilson Leite |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.35 | 23.0% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.19 | 84.0% | 12 Oct 06:15 |