| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.3% | 72% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 71.9% | 28.0% |
| logistic | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| Lorenzo Giustino | John Sperle | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1599 | 1426 |
| Surface Elo | 1599 | 1426 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | John Sperle | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Gerard Campana Lee | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Ponce De Leon Gomila, M | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Benjamin Hassan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Franco Agamenone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Giuseppe La Vela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | John Sperle | 1 - 2 | Lorenzo Giustino |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.39 | 71.9% | 29 Sep 06:15 |