| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.8% | 27% | +20.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.8% | 78% | -3.4% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.3% | 37% | +23.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.4% | 53% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.0% | 26.8% | 32.2% |
| xgboost | 32.8% | 28.1% | 39.1% |
| logistic | 28.9% | 28.9% | 42.2% |
| Tranmere | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1336 | 1578 |
| Surface Elo | 1336 | 1578 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | -0.80 |
| Season points per game | 1.22 | 1.44 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 2 - 4 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 2 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Walsall | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Walsall | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 0 - 5 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Fleetwood Town | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Fleetwood Town | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Apr 2023 | Rochdale | 2 - 2 | Tranmere |
| 25 Oct 2022 | Tranmere | 1 - 1 | Rochdale |
| 15 Jan 2022 | Tranmere | 2 - 0 | Rochdale |
| 11 Sep 2021 | Rochdale | 1 - 0 | Tranmere |
| 03 Aug 2019 | Tranmere | 2 - 3 | Rochdale |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.96 | 51.0% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.98 | 50.5% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.88 | 53.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.89 | 52.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.88 | 53.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |