| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.4% | 60% | -0.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| logistic | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Hugo Grenier | Inaki Montes De La Torre | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1565 | 1661 |
| Surface Elo | 1565 | 1661 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Carl Emil Overbeck | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Carl Emil Overbeck | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Luca Potenza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Henrique Rocha | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | David Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Hugo Grenier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Hugo Grenier | 0 - 2 | Inaki Montes De La Torre |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.67 | 59.9% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |