| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.1% | 45% | +7.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.4% | 77% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.0% | 64% | +4.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.3% | 58% | -2.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.8% | 28.3% | 27.9% |
| xgboost | 46.6% | 31.4% | 22.1% |
| logistic | 53.9% | 25.4% | 20.7% |
| Salernitana | Bari | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1424 | 1407 |
| Surface Elo | 1424 | 1407 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 508 | 148 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 3 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Crotone | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | FC Giugliano 1928 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Perugia | 0 - 6 | L |
| 13 May | A | Cittadella | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 May | A | Sampdoria | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Cosenza | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | ASD Sorrento 1945 | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Palermo | 2 - 2 | D |
| 08 May | A | Catanzaro | 3 - 2 | W |
| 01 May | H | Virtus Entella | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Bari | 0 - 0 | Salernitana |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Salernitana | 0 - 2 | Bari |
| 07 Apr 2018 | Bari | 1 - 1 | Salernitana |
| 04 Nov 2017 | Salernitana | 2 - 2 | Bari |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.96 | 51.0% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.79 | 55.9% | 04 Oct 06:15 |