| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.7% | 33% | +11.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 75% | +0.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.7% | 45% | +10.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% | 59% | +5.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 61.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.7% | 27.0% | 33.2% |
| xgboost | 36.5% | 26.1% | 37.4% |
| logistic | 35.1% | 28.3% | 36.7% |
| Le Mans | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1577 | 1648 |
| Surface Elo | 1577 | 1648 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Paris Saint Germain | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Paris Saint Germain | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Lorient | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Lens | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Nice | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Monaco | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Monaco | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Le Havre | 3 - 2 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Lorient | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Sep | H | Lille | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.65 | 27.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.03 | 33.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.66 | 60.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |