| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.3% | 74% | -11.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 68.2% | 31.7% |
| logistic | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Maks Kasnikowski | Cezar Cretu | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1564 | 1583 |
| Surface Elo | 1564 | 1583 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Stefano Travaglia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Cezar Cretu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Philip Henning | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Harold Mayot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Facundo Mena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Cezar Cretu | 0 - 2 | Maks Kasnikowski |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 12 Oct 06:15 |