| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.5% | 61% | -1.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.0% | 86% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.5% | 80% | -1.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 65% | -3.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 64.1% | 18.9% | 17.0% |
| xgboost | 70.5% | 16.3% | 13.2% |
| logistic | 59.3% | 23.2% | 17.5% |
| East Kilbride | Montrose | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1528 | 1444 |
| Surface Elo | 1528 | 1444 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Kelty Hearts | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Airdrieonians FC | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Airdrie Utd | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | East Fife | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | East Fife | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Ross County | 0 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Ross County | 0 - 5 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Airdrieonians FC | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Airdrie Utd | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Kelty Hearts | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Montrose | 3 - 0 | East Kilbride |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.40 | 22.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.66 | 60.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.56 | 64.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |