| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win selected | 61.6% | 58% | +3.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| logistic | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| Marvin Moeller | Dali Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1654 | 1570 |
| Surface Elo | 1654 | 1570 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Sep | H | Federico Arnaboldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Stefano Travaglia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Luka Mikrut | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Dali Blanch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Federico Arnaboldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Sandro Kopp | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Marvin Moeller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Sandro Kopp | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Dali Blanch | 1 - 2 | Marvin Moeller |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 25 Sep 06:15 |