| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.0% | 69% | -17.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| logistic | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Michiel De Krom | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1442 | 1447 |
| Surface Elo | 1442 | 1447 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 6 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Sander Jong | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Mario Martinez Serrano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Mar | H | Nicholas David Ionel | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Mar | A | Jerome Kym | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Aug | H | Valentin Vacherot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Max Wiskandt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Max Wiskandt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Max Hans Rehberg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | De Marchi, Andrea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | Comino, Lorenzo | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.45 | 69.0% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 07 Oct 06:15 |