OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ Scottish Championship · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Dunfermline 2.20 0 - 0 1.40 Livingston
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 48.3%40%+8.7%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 75.3%69%+5.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 63.9%55%+9.4%void
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 59.0%50%+9.0%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 55.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson28.8%33.1%38.0%
xgboost48.4%29.5%22.2%
logistic53.6%25.2%21.2%
Inputs the models saw
DunfermlineLivingston
Elo (pre-match)15761505
Surface Elo15761505
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.201.40
Form trend0.200.70
Season points per game1.631.30
Season goals for / game0.881.40
Season goals against / game0.631.10
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W2 W · 3 D
Dunfermline: last 5
10 OctAAyr1 - 1D
10 OctAAyr1 - 1D
19 SepAMorton1 - 0W
19 SepAMorton1 - 0W
12 SepHQueens Park2 - 0W
Livingston: last 5
10 OctHPartick1 - 2L
10 OctHPartick1 - 2L
03 OctHAyr1 - 2L
03 OctHAyr1 - 2L
25 SepARaith Rvs2 - 0W
Head to head
22 Aug 2026Livingston2 - 0Dunfermline
02 Apr 2025Dunfermline1 - 0Livingston
15 Feb 2025Livingston0 - 0Dunfermline
29 Oct 2024Dunfermline3 - 0Livingston
03 Aug 2024Livingston2 - 0Dunfermline
03 Apr 2018Dunfermline1 - 0Livingston
10 Feb 2018Livingston0 - 0Dunfermline
21 Oct 2017Dunfermline3 - 1Livingston
05 Aug 2017Livingston1 - 1Dunfermline
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.6038.5%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.4029.4%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.3043.5%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8354.6%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.9850.5%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away2.6537.7%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.4029.4%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.5539.2%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7856.2%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.0050.0%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:16 UTC