OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ England Premier League · Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC · finished
Newcastle 1.40 0 - 1 1.00 Aston Villa
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 48.0%43%+5.1%✗ miss
DCHome or away 76.4%76%+0.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 61.1%58%+3.1%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60.9%63%-2.0%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 59.0%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson46.6%24.2%29.2%
xgboost41.6%26.2%32.2%
logistic41.0%26.4%32.5%
Inputs the models saw
NewcastleAston Villa
Elo (pre-match)16961739
Surface Elo16961739
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.401.00
Form trend0.40-0.40
Season points per game1.501.00
Season goals for / game1.502.00
Season goals against / game1.502.00
Rest days47
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W4 W · 1 D
Newcastle: last 5
12 OctACoventry1 - 4L
19 SepHHull2 - 1W
14 SepALeeds1 - 4L
05 SepHBournemouth2 - 2D
29 AugATottenham2 - 0W
Aston Villa: last 5
14 OctHFenerbahce6 - 0W
10 OctHBrentford2 - 2D
10 OctHBrentford2 - 2D
02 OctASevilla3 - 1W
22 SepACrewe1 - 4L
Head to head
25 Jan 2026Newcastle0 - 2Aston Villa
16 Aug 2025Aston Villa0 - 0Newcastle
19 Apr 2025Aston Villa4 - 1Newcastle
26 Dec 2024Newcastle3 - 0Aston Villa
30 Jan 2024Aston Villa1 - 3Newcastle
12 Aug 2023Newcastle5 - 1Aston Villa
15 Apr 2023Aston Villa3 - 0Newcastle
29 Oct 2022Newcastle4 - 0Aston Villa
13 Feb 2022Newcastle1 - 0Aston Villa
21 Aug 2021Aston Villa2 - 0Newcastle
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.0432.9%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7826.5%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3542.5%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5962.9%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC