| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 41.9% | 50% | -8.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.8% | 77% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 54.5% | 68% | -13.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 55% | +1.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 28.3% | 26.9% | 44.8% |
| xgboost | 38.5% | 20.1% | 41.4% |
| logistic | 39.0% | 26.9% | 34.1% |
| Sunderland | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1646 | 1734 |
| Surface Elo | 1646 | 1734 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.56 | 1.78 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.78 | 2.11 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.89 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Nov | H | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Coventry | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Coventry | 1 - 3 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Brentford | 3 - 2 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Leeds | 0 - 0 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Manchester United | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Man Utd | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Liverpool | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Tottenham | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Tottenham | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 May 2026 | Sunderland | 2 - 1 | Chelsea |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Chelsea | 1 - 2 | Sunderland |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 08 Nov 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 08 Nov 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 08 Nov 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 08 Nov 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 08 Nov 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.13 | 46.9% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.69 | 27.1% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.57 | 28.0% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.79 | 55.9% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 08 Nov 06:15 |