| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.3% | 48% | +3.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 78.2% | 75% | +3.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 68.2% | 65% | +3.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 60% | -2.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 26.2% | 25.9% | 48.0% |
| xgboost | 23.8% | 26.4% | 49.8% |
| logistic | 20.3% | 26.4% | 53.3% |
| Fiorentina | Como | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1628 | 1789 |
| Surface Elo | 1628 | 1789 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 1.83 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Genoa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Genoa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Napoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Sep | A | Venezia | 4 - 2 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Torino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Feyenoord | 2 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Roma | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Roma | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Frosinone | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Parma | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Como | 1 - 2 | Fiorentina |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Fiorentina | 1 - 2 | Como |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina | 0 - 2 | Como |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Como | 0 - 2 | Fiorentina |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.14 | 46.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.73 | 26.8% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.52 | 28.4% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.69 | 59.2% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 18 Oct 06:15 |