| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.5% | 69% | -13.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.9% | 86% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.4% | 83% | -10.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.7% | 78% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 73.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 60.8% | 20.2% | 19.0% |
| xgboost | 47.4% | 21.5% | 31.2% |
| logistic | 63.3% | 23.1% | 13.6% |
| RB Leipzig | Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1702 | 1585 |
| Surface Elo | 1702 | 1585 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | A | Real Madrid | 1 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Bayern München | 1 - 6 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Bayern München | 1 - 6 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Augsburg | 4 - 3 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Augsburg | 4 - 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Schalke 04 | 0 - 0 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.25 | 16.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.75 | 17.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.46 | 68.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.28 | 78.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.80 | 26.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |