| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.9% | 70% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 69.4% | 30.5% |
| logistic | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Paula Badosa | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1662 | 1548 |
| Surface Elo | 1662 | 1548 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 11 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Jelena Ostapenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Daria Kasatkina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Nadia Podoroska | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Mary Stoiana | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | Jazmin Ortenzi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Paula Badosa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Paula Badosa | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Aug | H | Zeynep Sonmez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Daria Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | Paula Badosa |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Daria Kasatkina | 0 - 2 | Paula Badosa |
| 25 May 2025 | Daria Kasatkina | 2 - 0 | Paula Badosa |
| 14 Oct 2024 | Daria Kasatkina | 1 - 0 | Paula Badosa |
| 01 Jul 2024 | Daria Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | Paula Badosa |
| 17 Apr 2023 | Daria Kasatkina | 0 - 2 | Paula Badosa |
| 01 Aug 2022 | Daria Kasatkina | 2 - 0 | Paula Badosa |
| 09 May 2022 | Daria Kasatkina | 2 - 0 | Paula Badosa |
| 10 Jan 2022 | Daria Kasatkina | 0 - 2 | Paula Badosa |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.42 | 70.4% | 30 Sep 06:15 |