| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.2% | 78% | -10.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| logistic | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| Elena Rybakina | Leylah Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1980 | 1791 |
| Surface Elo | 1980 | 1791 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.54 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.85 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Diana Shnaider | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Katarzyna Kawa | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Polina Kudermetova | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Leylah Fernandez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Diana Shnaider | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Marie Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Elise Mertens | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Elena Rybakina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Elena Rybakina | 2 - 0 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Elena Rybakina | 2 - 1 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Elena Rybakina | 2 - 0 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 21 Jul 2025 | Elena Rybakina | 1 - 2 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 12 Aug 2024 | Elena Rybakina | 1 - 2 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 12 Feb 2024 | Elena Rybakina | 2 - 0 | Leylah Fernandez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.29 | 77.5% | 25 Oct 06:15 |