OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Championship · Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Middlesbrough 2.20 2 - 2 1.40 Cardiff
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 55.7%66%-10.5%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 82.8%87%-4.5%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 75.8%83%-7.0%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 61.1%71%-10.0%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 58.7%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson63.1%21.3%15.6%
xgboost52.5%29.8%17.7%
logistic57.5%23.9%18.6%
Inputs the models saw
MiddlesbroughCardiff
Elo (pre-match)16511546
Surface Elo16511546
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.201.40
Form trend-0.20-0.40
Season points per game2.101.00
Season goals for / game2.001.60
Season goals against / game1.401.50
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W1 W · 3 D
Middlesbrough: last 5
13 OctAStoke3 - 2W
13 OctAStoke3 - 2W
10 OctHWolverhampton Wanderers1 - 0W
10 OctHWolverhampton Wanderers1 - 0W
19 SepABirmingham2 - 2D
Cardiff: last 5
13 OctHWatford5 - 1W
13 OctHWatford5 - 1W
10 OctABlackburn1 - 2L
10 OctABlackburn1 - 2L
19 SepHCharlton3 - 1W
Head to head
04 Jan 2025Middlesbrough1 - 1Cardiff
31 Aug 2024Cardiff0 - 2Middlesbrough
27 Apr 2024Cardiff1 - 4Middlesbrough
03 Oct 2023Middlesbrough2 - 0Cardiff
11 Feb 2023Cardiff1 - 3Middlesbrough
13 Sep 2022Middlesbrough2 - 3Cardiff
27 Apr 2022Middlesbrough2 - 0Cardiff
23 Oct 2021Cardiff0 - 2Middlesbrough
27 Feb 2021Middlesbrough1 - 1Cardiff
24 Oct 2020Cardiff1 - 1Middlesbrough
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away6.0016.7%17 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2draw4.7521.1%17 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2home1.4569.0%17 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.3673.5%17 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under3.2031.2%17 Oct 12:30
SportyBet1X2away5.5717.9%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw5.0319.9%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5365.4%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4170.9%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.0033.3%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:20 UTC