| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.1% | 44% | +4.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.4% | 77% | -0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.2% | 59% | +2.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 63% | -3.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.9% | 25.2% | 29.9% |
| xgboost | 43.5% | 25.0% | 31.4% |
| logistic | 41.2% | 26.6% | 32.2% |
| Newcastle | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1696 | 1739 |
| Surface Elo | 1696 | 1739 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| Rest days | 4 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Coventry | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Hull | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Leeds | 1 - 4 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Bournemouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Tottenham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Fenerbahce | 6 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Brentford | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Brentford | 2 - 2 | D |
| 02 Oct | A | Sevilla | 3 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 4 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Newcastle | 0 - 2 | Aston Villa |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Aston Villa | 0 - 0 | Newcastle |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Aston Villa | 4 - 1 | Newcastle |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Newcastle | 3 - 0 | Aston Villa |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Aston Villa | 1 - 3 | Newcastle |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Newcastle | 5 - 1 | Aston Villa |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Aston Villa | 3 - 0 | Newcastle |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Newcastle | 4 - 0 | Aston Villa |
| 13 Feb 2022 | Newcastle | 1 - 0 | Aston Villa |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Aston Villa | 2 - 0 | Newcastle |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 17 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 17 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 17 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 17 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.63 | 38.0% | 17 Oct 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.77 | 26.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.34 | 42.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |