| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.9% | 49% | +1.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.6% | 79% | +1.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.6% | 68% | +1.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 57% | -3.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.3% | 27.8% | 23.8% |
| xgboost | 49.6% | 30.1% | 20.3% |
| logistic | 51.7% | 27.5% | 20.8% |
| Stevenage | Milton Keynes Dons | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1552 | 1501 |
| Surface Elo | 1552 | 1501 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Plymouth | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Plymouth | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Bradford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Bradford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Wigan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Blackpool | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Blackpool | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Luton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Luton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Reading | 1 - 5 | L |
| 16 Mar 2019 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 1 | Stevenage |
| 24 Nov 2018 | Stevenage | 3 - 2 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.01 | 49.8% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.80 | 55.6% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |