| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.7% | 80% | -13.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 89.2% | 94% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 86.3% | 92% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 71% | -11.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 74.6% | 16.0% | 9.5% |
| xgboost | 68.5% | 18.7% | 12.9% |
| logistic | 74.3% | 17.4% | 8.3% |
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1849 | 1625 |
| Surface Elo | 1849 | 1625 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.38 | 1.63 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 9 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 18 Oct | H | Antequera CF | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | RSD Alcala SAD | 0 - 0 | D |
| 14 Oct | A | Roma | 4 - 3 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | SDA Tordesillas | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Villarreal | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Levante | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Barcelona | 1 - 3 | L |
| 16 Sep | A | La Coruna | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Valencia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Espanol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 May 2026 | Sevilla | 0 - 1 | Real Madrid |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Real Madrid | 2 - 0 | Sevilla |
| 18 May 2025 | Sevilla | 0 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Real Madrid | 4 - 2 | Sevilla |
| 25 Feb 2024 | Real Madrid | 1 - 0 | Sevilla |
| 21 Oct 2023 | Sevilla | 1 - 1 | Real Madrid |
| 27 May 2023 | Sevilla | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 22 Oct 2022 | Real Madrid | 3 - 1 | Sevilla |
| 17 Apr 2022 | Sevilla | 2 - 3 | Real Madrid |
| 28 Nov 2021 | Real Madrid | 2 - 1 | Sevilla |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 11.00 | 9.1% | 18 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 6.50 | 15.4% | 18 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.25 | 80.0% | 18 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 18 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 18 Oct 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 11.22 | 8.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 7.12 | 14.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.27 | 78.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.41 | 70.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 18 Oct 06:15 |