| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.7% | 44% | +9.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| logistic | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Justin Roberts | Wilson Leite | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1461 | 1403 |
| Surface Elo | 1461 | 1403 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | H | Jose Pereira | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Nov | A | Andres Andrade | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Nov | A | Benjamin Ignacio Torres Fernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Gonzalo Bueno | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | Ignacio Buse | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Mateus Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Jose Pereira | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Gabriel Roveri Sidney | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Jun | A | Nick Hardt | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 27 Sep 06:15 |