| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.8% | 72% | -4.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| logistic | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| Karen Khachanov | Arthur Fery | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1886 | 1818 |
| Surface Elo | 1886 | 1818 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Dillon Beckles | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Alex Molcan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Felix Auger Aliassime | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Marin Cilic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Ignacio Buse | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | James Duckworth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Aug | H | Mees Rottgering | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.38 | 72.5% | 08 Oct 06:15 |