OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-31
⚽ Netherlands Eredivisie · Saturday 31 October 2026, 20:00 UTC · scheduled
Ajax 2.20 20:00 1.00 AZ Alkmaar
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.3%60%-5.6%
DCHome or draw 79.0%81%-2.4%
DNBHome (DNB) 70.9%76%-4.7%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 59.1%71%-12.3%
BTTSBTTS yes 55.5%no line
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson51.6%23.4%25.0%
xgboost56.3%21.7%22.0%
logistic54.8%25.2%19.9%
Inputs the models saw
AjaxAZ Alkmaar
Elo (pre-match)16941628
Surface Elo16941628
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.201.00
Form trend-0.200.40
Season points per game2.001.00
Season goals for / game2.500.75
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days66
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W6 W · 4 D
Ajax: last 5
25 OctASparta Rotterdam2 - 1W
25 OctASparta Rotterdam2 - 1W
22 OctHAtalanta2 - 0W
18 OctAGroningen5 - 2W
18 OctAGroningen5 - 2W
AZ Alkmaar: last 5
25 OctHTwente0 - 2L
25 OctHTwente0 - 2L
23 OctHHelmond Sport5 - 4W
22 OctAFC Ararat-Armenia4 - 0W
18 OctACambuur2 - 2D
Head to head
08 Feb 2026AZ Alkmaar1 - 1Ajax
18 Oct 2025Ajax0 - 2AZ Alkmaar
16 Mar 2025Ajax2 - 2AZ Alkmaar
08 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar2 - 1Ajax
25 Feb 2024AZ Alkmaar2 - 0Ajax
08 Oct 2023Ajax1 - 2AZ Alkmaar
06 May 2023Ajax0 - 0AZ Alkmaar
18 Sep 2022AZ Alkmaar2 - 1Ajax
08 May 2022AZ Alkmaar2 - 2Ajax
12 Dec 2021Ajax1 - 2AZ Alkmaar
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.5921.8%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.6621.5%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6759.9%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4071.4%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.1032.3%30 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 13:58 UTC