OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-06
⚽ Portugal Liga Portugal · Friday 06 November 2026, 20:45 UTC · finished
Famalicao 1.40 1 - 0 2.00 Arouca
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 44.3%45%-0.6%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 73.2%74%-0.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 60.6%62%-1.8%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 55.1%56%-1.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 52.5%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson49.2%26.8%24.0%
xgboost39.1%31.7%29.2%
logistic39.5%28.5%32.0%
Inputs the models saw
FamalicaoArouca
Elo (pre-match)15821599
Surface Elo15821599
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.402.00
Form trend0.20-0.80
Season points per game2.002.50
Season goals for / game2.671.25
Season goals against / game1.000.50
Rest days55
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W4 W · 3 D
Famalicao: last 5
01 NovASp Braga0 - 3L
01 NovASp Braga0 - 3L
29 OctASp Braga2 - 2D
25 OctARio Ave4 - 0W
25 OctARio Ave4 - 0W
Arouca: last 5
01 NovHNacional da Madeira1 - 0W
01 NovHNacional1 - 0W
24 OctAAlverca1 - 0W
24 OctAAlverca1 - 0W
18 OctABelenenses3 - 3D
Head to head
06 Mar 2026Famalicao1 - 0Arouca
05 Oct 2025Arouca1 - 1Famalicao
05 Apr 2025Arouca1 - 2Famalicao
09 Nov 2024Famalicao0 - 0Arouca
23 Feb 2024Arouca3 - 2Famalicao
22 Sep 2023Famalicao1 - 0Arouca
03 Apr 2023Famalicao0 - 1Arouca
10 Oct 2022Arouca4 - 1Famalicao
31 Jan 2022Famalicao0 - 0Arouca
20 Aug 2021Arouca2 - 1Famalicao
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.3230.1%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.3829.6%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3143.3%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.2045.5%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.7058.8%06 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:04 UTC