| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.9% | 52% | +4.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| logistic | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Maxim Mrva | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1612 | 1564 |
| Surface Elo | 1612 | 1564 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Hynek Barton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Hynek Barton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Izan Almazan Valiente | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Oliver Tarvet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Oliver Tarvet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Francesco Maestrelli | 0 - 2 | Maxim Mrva |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.81 | 55.2% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.93 | 51.8% | 15 Oct 06:15 |